Most likely we are in World War 3 or a major re-ordering of the entire global world order. The catalyst was the 2008 economic collapse and since then, democracy has been in retreat, major wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Ukraine, and now Palestine/Israel have left old alliances fractured, and new unholy alliances forming. From here, the stakes get higher for every country. Here are the most important things to keep an eye on this coming year (and beyond):
SEPTEMBER 11th, 2001 Part. 2? A New Holy War: The clash between the West and Islamic Fascism turned into two U.S. wars, the rise of Al Qaeda and then ISIS, the destruction of Syria, a refugee crisis in Europe, as well as the Arab Spring which pushed back on Islamic Fascism. While the Middle East was simmering down (actually creating new unholy alliances behind the scenes), Part 2 of this war seems to have resumed. We now go back to seeing widespread prejudice against Middle Easterners and Muslims on one side and Jews, Americans, and Westerners on the other side. Even if cooler heads prevail in government, there are fanatical groups on all sides (islamic terrorists, apocalyptic orthodox jews wanting war, Nazis, nationalists, racist groups, lone-wolf attackers) who will most likely come out of the woodwork and keep this going for a long time.
DOES IRAN GO TO WAR?: Iran is not really in a position to go to war against Israel and certainly not against the US and Israel together. Luckily, Iran is led by corrupt materialists pretending to be Islamic Holy men so they probably can’t risk their wives not having access to shopping in Paris and their kids going to Stanford. But the problem is Iran has created many proxy armies (like Hezbollah and Hamas) and any one of them could go rogue, or more likely, factions within these factions will go rogue and actually declare a jihad against Israel and the West. More important than the two US Aircraft Carriers discouraging Iran, Iran’s threats to attack Israel, and the bombs going off between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, is those terrorist groups and whether they splinter as “true believers” go rogue.
AMERICA WITHDRAWS OR ENGAGES A NEW WORLD ORDER: The US has significantly withdrawn from the Middle East since the poorly-executed Iraq/Aghanistan wars which just created more dangerous complicated vacuums in the region. American leaders and people will want to isolate themslves from all of this. Politicians will run on it and possibly win promising to keep the US out of global conflicts. That will sound good, but unfortunately everything from food, to oil, to microchips, to materials to make fossil fuel alternatives are tied to Europe, Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. The US will see too many disruptions if it pulls out, but it also doesn’t have the money to stay in. In some ways, Hamas has completed Osama Bin Laden’s trap for America: Go in and you get war and global hatred, withdraw and you get war everywhere else and lower standards of living. What will the USA do? Beware of stupid politicians with their one-liner answers to complicated problems.
FOSSIL FUEL PRESSURE: Energy prices are most likely going to get worse. The US produces enough oil to not depend on the Middle East, but it may have to resort to more fracking, more drilling in Alaska, and building oil platforms off of its beautiful coasts. No one should want this, but Americans will want a reprieve from expensive energy costs. Thus we can expect to see an acceleration in the desire to create a green economy, to use nuclear, solar, and wind. The problem, however, is all of those things depend on oil (for the metals, the plastic, the concrete, the transportation, the mining etc.). A truly green economy is not possible for a long time. And the mining required to build a green economy mostly takes place in unstable countries like Russia and the Congo. Who taps Africa’s resources? China has a big head start. The US has the political leverage. And Russia uses militias like the Wagner group. Keep an eye on energy prices, an accelaration in a desire to go “green”, and geo-political and financial challenges in the greening process.
DEMOCRACY GROWING OR SHRINKING
As was the case after the 2008 global economic crisis, this will be a great time for anti-democratic and theocratic leaders to promise voters the moon. Democratic norms typically see roll-backs during periods like this. This time around, A.I. and misinformation campaigns will be on over-drive. The rise in authoritarianism was starting to slow down because whether it’s Turkey, or China, or the US, people were beginning to see that these leaders have no answers—they just know how to have enemies and make people angry. But terrorism could give all of this a new lease on life.
CHINA-TAIWAN: China has only had 1 war since 1945 and it was against Vietnam in 1979 and they lost. Xi Jinping’s Taiwan threats are mostly to scare the US navy away from China’s coasts and to mobilize nationalist sentiment in China to distract from all of China’s problems. As with Netanyahu and Putin, if he loses the war, he gets kicked out in disgrace. It’s a huge gamble. Unfortunately, Xi is a poor decision maker, who like Putin, is surrounded by “yes men” who don’t give him the truth. With leaders like that, you can never be sure what will happen. Putin made a horrific miscalculation invading Ukraine, but he believed his own hype and thought no one would respond.
MASSIVE ANTI-IMMIGRATION MOVEMENTS: Probably the nations of the West will now be far more pro-actively anti-immigration. In some senses, it will make sense since the amount of refugees and displaced people (by war, poverty, and climate) is going to grow dramatically. Ironically, many nations from Germany, Italy, and Japan to China and the United States need immigrants to replace their dangerously-low birthrates, provide enough workers, and to support their tax-base. So an enormous influx of immigrants can destabalize society, but keeping them all out can also destabilize society. Look to see which countries handle immigration intelligently and which don’t.
ISRAEL-HAMAS-and PEACE: Hamas and Israel have opened a new active front in a conflict that began going to new levels in the late 1800’s. There’s no realistic chance for peace. Too many factions exist that will be committed to war. The best that can be hoped for is that the governments of Israel, Saudi Arabia and other Arab nations (mostly Sunni nations) agree to keep their borders and trade open to Israel. Call this the “Preserve Dubai” world. Yes, they all hate each other, but if they can make money while hating each other–that’s better than going broke and destroying each other. Iran won’t be a part of this. Iran will probably face a lot more hostility in the future, and possibly a revolution.
LOOK FOR REVOLUTIONS: In the West, in East Asia, in Latin America, and in Europe, Africa, and the Middle East, we can expect to see more revolutions and coup d’etats. A return to the 1970’s when governments collapsed all the time. Some of these revolutions may destroy corrupt regimes like Iran, and others will give birth to new Democratic regimes. But social media, inflation, and de-globalization are creating a tinder-box so that people are ready to engage in civil wars, one way or another.
SPACE AND COMMUNICATIONS WARS: Power grids, satellites, GPS, underground cables…all will be targets in the emerging global conflicts. That is concerning because fragile societies are complex societies–dependent on more interconnected things than anyone can keep track of. The same way that technology lulled Israeli security forces into a false sense of security, our technological dependence is doing the same thing regarding threats to our modern world.
LOOK FOR AN INCREASE IN APOCALYPYIC MOVEMENTS: “End times” prophets are found in most all world religions. Certainly, Evangelicals will be claiming this is the end and it’s all foretold. But so will Ultra-orthodox apocalyptic Jews, and apocalyptic Shiite Muslims. You can find apocalypticism in Hinduism, in Buddhism, and in the ancient civlizations of the Maya and Aztec. We will also see secular messianic versions of this: “only AI can save us.” It’s how people deal with rapid change, tragedy, and the unexplainable. It’s not something to get caught up in, but many people will–just as they will get caught up in fascism, conspiracy theories, and other things that provide simplistic analysis and answers.
FINAL THOUGHTS:
History is cyclical. The British World Order was upended by World War I and II. The American World order (1945/1991-to present) is currently being upended. What will replace it? It will take a decade or more to find out. Periods of peace and prosperity have been quite rare in human history. We’ve been spoiled.
That is why FAMILY has always been so important in human societies. It’s also why COMMUNITY and NEIGHBORS have been important. Modern society is practically hostile toward community, family, and connecting with neighbors. We live inward, disconnected lives–much of it spent online–and that makes us more vulnerable and fragile. While times of crisis are never pleasant, they do tend to separate for us what is truly important in life, versus what are superficial distractions.
Ultimately, this will probably lead to a safer, healthier world order, but probably one that is less democratic. This was my prediction 15 years ago when I wrote an essay called: “The Future is Singapore.” I wrote then:
“The world that we are entering into may be too
inter-connected, too environmentally fragile, with far too
many consumers and too threatened by assymetrical
open-source warfare for liberal democracy to flourish. The
situation fragile China now finds itself in may be a
harbinger of the future of the nation-state. We are too
wealthy, use too many of the world’s resources, and are too
vulnerable to de-centralized forces to disregard the role
that a strong, state can play.” -“The Future is Singapore” 2008
I would love to be wrong about everything I’ve written in these 4 parts. I would prefer a quiet life, where there is no violence, where travel is safe and people of all colors and ethnicities co-exist, and we solve problems like cancer instead of taking these dark detours. But humans are going to human, so we should focus on the good things that we do best when we are at our best: friendship, family, building community, helping your neighbor, and taking care of our children. Most of all, remember the children. As annoying and volatile as we humans are, we do need each other.