Two months into the Russia-Ukraine War and the only person on the planet who seems to want to keep it going is Vladimir Putin. Reports of Russian troops firing on Russian troops, Russian media questioning the sinking of the Moscva warship, and high-level military commanders getting killed or disappearing mean that there are not too many public cheerleaders out there encouraging Putin. This begs the question whether its possible for Putin himself to be eliminated by assassination or by a coup d’etat? It’s hard to imagine this unpopular, expensive war continuing if it weren’t for Putin’s pride and misguided ideas about Ukraine. So how to get rid of him?
Assassinating Vladimir Putin is more difficult to pull off than it would be with most leaders. He fears ending up like Libya’s Colonel Khadaffi; surrounded by his own people torturing him to death before shooting him in the head. Consequently, he has not one, but two separate militias that are dedicated solely to helping him survive coups. Those are two tough walls to breach. Taking out one, or infiltrating one, doesn’t mean it gets you anywhere with the other.
The second group of people he has around him are the “Siloviki”–high ranked elites of key institutions like the FSB, special forces, domestic and foreign intelligence services that act as enforcers. They are key people in key positions who should theoretically be able to quell rebellions and coups before they can get off the ground. There were early signs that Putin’s Siloviki were uneasy with his war in Ukraine and plotting against him; but he seems to have jailed the trouble-makers or killed them in the nick of time.
A third group are the Oligarchs–the wealthy billionare’s who support the regime in exchange for being free to grift off the State. Putin is the sugar daddy that makes all the yachts, private planes, and French villas possible. However, if yachts and villas are getting confiscated, the oligarchs could turn; although much of their power would be taken away from them by Putin’s enemies or by Putin himself.
A fourth group is the military which is kept intentionally weak and without much respect in the public consciousness in order to prevent a situation where military coup d’etat’s are possible. Thus far the top levels of command have seemed to obediently send soldiers to their death without much complaint–although some of the forces on the ground have been reluctant to fight since Day one.
A fifth group are the regional bosses governing the provinces far away from Moscow and St. Petersberg. They are kept intentionally weak and disconnected from Moscow so as to not get intermingled in the day to day politics of the Kremlin. But if they so chose, they could try and disconnect from Moscow and break away–especially if locals demand it because of a decline in living standards.
A sixth group is the Russian Orthodox Church which continues to frame this as a cosmic battle between good and evil with Putin playing the role of the savior. The priesthood in Russia overwhelmingly supports the Patriarch’s call to support Putin and this “Holy War” and there seems to be no breaking that alliance. it has, however, cost the Russian Patriarch the Ukranian Orthodox Church and believers, as well as many other Orthodox Churches that are now condeming the Russian Orthodox Church.
So far it seems that Putin is well-protected from a coup. There are many layers between him and downfall. The fact that he was able to squash the rebellion within the Siloviki is discouraging. That was probably the best hope for regime change. The one card that may still be on the table is Putin being overthrown by more humiliating losses in Ukraine. Battles and wars that end up in embarassing defeats have a way of over-throwing dictators. They expose incompetence, cost the nation billions of dollars, and embarass the nation internationally. Damaging national pride is a big deal. This is currently in the process of happening. It seems like Russia’s big military push into Luhansk and Donetsk will once again be a very poorly-conceived military assault with troops that are not remotetly up to the task. One more month of embarassing losses and lack of progress could make Putin more vulnerable than he has ever been before. We can only hope.